Icecream — Interactive Sim
loading slate…
Pick games (today or tomorrow, from RotoWire projected lineups) + a sim count, hit Run:
the box refits the per-PA engine and Monte-Carlos each game (full-game with late-inning bullpen,
first-5). You get the 0–40 run-total distribution, E[total], median, sd, no-vig win probs, and
our sim line vs the opening & closing market (Pinnacle-first; never live). Research only — NO BETS.
Perceived-edge flags (the “7%+ EDGE” badges) are a RESEARCH signal — NOT a pick, NOT betting advice, NO BETS.
The per-PA sim has no validated betting edge (2026 walk-forward: corr +0.03 vs
market +0.24, RMSE worse than the league mean), and after calibration it still
over-tilts in low-total / pitcher-park games — so the flags are dominated by that
residual over-bias (they lean OVER for the wrong reason). A flag is a paper EV
computation only; nothing is staked or recorded anywhere.