MLB First-Five-Innings probability model, served from icecream-box (independent of Max's mlb.alibisportslounge.com). Every page on the site is below; the same links are in the top nav of every page. Research — no bets.
Daily picks & lines
Daily slate Tonight & tomorrow's per-game card: each team's moneyline and the game total — opening line / our number, First-5 and Full-game, with win/loss marks as games go final.
Model line The calibrated model line — model totals and honest win probabilities at the market line. Tonight's bet-of-record artifact; no picks.
Bet trackers (paper — no money)
Bettable The games we bet (linefeat) — day-by-day boxes with W-L, units, and a lifetime record.
Shadow The consensus-gap shadow bets, same day-by-day tracker format.
Model research (leak-free)
Model bake-off 2026 leaderboard of all 9 full-game total models (retrained through last season), plus today's and tomorrow's over/under leans vs the line.
F5 bake-off The same leaderboard + daily picks for the first-5-innings total.
F5 totals Forward-learning scoreboard — the F5 models retrain daily and are graded on accuracy vs the real first-5 score.
Forward shadows (paper — no bets)
Shadow Live paper record of the consensus+gap rule (full game). Research only.
Forward sim RotoWire-lineup per-PA Monte-Carlo of each game; fair no-vig odds and our line vs the opening & closing market (Pinnacle-first; never live). Research only.
Interactive sim Pick games + a sim count and run the per-PA engine live: 0-40 run-total histograms, win probs, and our/open/close lines per bet. Research only.
System
Model outputs Raw model outputs and deployment notes.