Forward paper bet-of-record. Bet the model's side when |pred − line| is large, flat 1u at −110, locked pre-first-pitch and FROZEN (the bet never moves after lock). Full game and First-5 (F5) on one page. Updated 2026-07-01 10:50 PM ET.
PAPER forward-test — NOT YET PROVEN, NO real money. Arms: E15 = edge≥1.5; O10 = over & edge≥1.0; U10 = under & edge≥1.0. On full game all three cleared the audit; on F5 only E15 held (O10/U10 ~coin-flip, tracked only). Promotes to a real bet only at N≥100 graded with lower-CI win% > 52.4%. Close = never-live closing total (Bovada-first, cut 5 min before first pitch), CLV reference only.
Today's plays (2026-07-01) · score & result
Full game — to bet
BETFG O10Chicago White Sox @ Baltimore Orioles · OVER 10.5(edge 1.36 · close 10.0)
Chicago White Sox 1 – 6 Baltimore Orioles · total 7.0 · LOST-1.00u
BETFG E15Texas Rangers @ Cleveland Guardians · OVER 8.0(edge 1.88 · close 7.5)
TRACKF5 O10Pittsburgh Pirates @ Philadelphia Phillies · OVER 4.0(edge 1.2 · close 4.0)
Pittsburgh Pirates 4 – 8 Philadelphia Phillies (F5) · F5 total 12.0 · WON+0.91u
TRACKF5 O10Miami Marlins @ Colorado Rockies · OVER 5.5(edge 1.09 · close 5.5)
PENDING· first pitch 8:40 PM ET
Full game
E15 (edge≥1.5) · BET 1-1-0 -0.09u · -4.5% ROI
O10 (over e≥1.0) · BET 8-5-0 +2.27u · +17.5% ROI
U10 (under e≥1.0) · BET 0-0-0 +0.00u · +0.0% ROI
Record by year · forward, graded
2026 9-6-0 +2.18u · +14.5% ROI
Backtest by year · out-of-sample (train<year, predict year)
Backtest context, NOT a betting record — historical lines are ~81% static / ~75% synthetic, so unverifiable; the live forward record above is the only thing that counts. Graded vs the opening line and (separately) the closing line. Blue = lower-90% CI > 52.4%.
vs OPENING
Year
E15 (edge≥1.5)
O10 (over e≥1.0)
U10 (under e≥1.0)
2023
94-65-959.1% · lo90 52.6% · +20.5u
97-64-760.2% · lo90 53.8% · +24.2u
79-51-360.8% · lo90 53.6% · +20.8u
2024
252-183-2057.9% · lo90 54.0% · +46.1u
194-172-1753.0% · lo90 48.7% · +4.4u
4-5-044.4% · lo90 21.8% · -1.4u
2025
90-69-956.6% · lo90 50.1% · +12.8u
105-119-546.9% · lo90 41.5% · -23.5u
15-6-271.4% · lo90 53.5% · +7.6u
2026in-sample
43-19-369.4% · lo90 59.1% · +20.1u
48-47-850.5% · lo90 42.2% · -3.4u
3-1-075.0% · lo90 35.6% · +1.7u
vs CLOSING
Year
E15 (edge≥1.5)
O10 (over e≥1.0)
U10 (under e≥1.0)
2023
103-80-856.3% · lo90 50.2% · +13.6u
107-73-859.4% · lo90 53.3% · +24.3u
83-52-361.5% · lo90 54.4% · +23.5u
2024
257-187-2357.9% · lo90 54.0% · +46.6u
207-179-2053.6% · lo90 49.4% · +9.2u
4-4-150.0% · lo90 24.9% · -0.4u
2025
103-84-1055.1% · lo90 49.1% · +9.6u
113-114-749.8% · lo90 44.4% · -11.3u
18-7-272.0% · lo90 55.7% · +9.4u
2026in-sample
54-31-263.5% · lo90 54.6% · +18.1u
58-49-654.2% · lo90 46.3% · +3.7u
3-5-137.5% · lo90 16.1% · -2.3u
Full record
Date
Arm
Game
Bet (locked)
Close
Pred
Edge
Result
total
P/L
2026-07-01
O10
Chicago White Sox@Baltimore Orioles
OVER 10.5
10.0 bovada
11.86
1.36
L
7.0
-1.00
2026-07-01
O10
Washington Nationals@Boston Red Sox
OVER 9.5
9.5 bovada
10.92
1.42
W
12.0
+0.91
2026-07-01
E15
Texas Rangers@Cleveland Guardians
OVER 8.0
7.5 bovada
9.88
1.88
W
13.0
+0.91
2026-07-01
U10
Miami Marlins@Colorado Rockies
UNDER 13.5
11.0 bovada
12.46
1.04
pending
2026-06-30
O10
St. Louis Cardinals@Atlanta Braves
OVER 9.5
9.0 bovada
10.5
1.0
L
8.0
-1.00
2026-06-30
O10
Washington Nationals@Boston Red Sox
OVER 9.5
9.0 bovada
10.53
1.03
L
9.0
-1.00
2026-06-30
O10
Texas Rangers@Cleveland Guardians
OVER 7.5
7.5 bovada
8.73
1.23
L
6.0
-1.00
2026-06-30
E15
Miami Marlins@Colorado Rockies
UNDER 15.0
11.0 bovada
13.33
1.67
L
17.0
-1.00
2026-06-30
O10
Tampa Bay Rays@Kansas City Royals
OVER 10.5
9.5 bovada
11.82
1.32
W
14.0
+0.91
2026-06-29
O10
Washington Nationals@Boston Red Sox
OVER 8.5
8.0 bovada
9.51
1.01
W
9.0
+0.91
2026-06-29
O10
Texas Rangers@Cleveland Guardians
OVER 7.5
7.5 bovada
8.56
1.06
W
9.0
+0.91
2026-06-29
O10
Miami Marlins@Colorado Rockies
OVER 11.0
12.0 bovada
12.07
1.07
W
17.0
+0.91
2026-06-29
O10
Minnesota Twins@Houston Astros
OVER 8.5
9.0 bovada
9.63
1.13
W
9.0
+0.91
2026-06-28
O10
New York Yankees@Boston Red Sox
OVER 8.0
8.0 bovada
9.22
1.22
W
9.0
+0.91
2026-06-28
O10
Seattle Mariners@Cleveland Guardians
OVER 7.5
7.5 bovada
8.55
1.05
W
11.0
+0.91
2026-06-28
O10
Colorado Rockies@Minnesota Twins
OVER 9.0
9.0 bovada
10.44
1.44
L
5.0
-1.00
First 5 (F5)
E15 (edge≥1.5) · BET 2-1-1 +0.82u · +27.3% ROI
O10 (over e≥1.0) · track 4-2-0 +1.64u · +27.3% ROI
U10 (under e≥1.0) · track 0-0-0 +0.00u · +0.0% ROI
Record by year · forward, graded
2026 6-3-1 +2.45u · +27.3% ROI
Backtest by year · out-of-sample (train<year, predict year)
Backtest context, NOT a betting record — F5 lines are ~99% static historically, so unverifiable; the live forward record above is the only thing that counts. Graded vs the opening line and (separately) the closing line. Blue = lower-90% CI > 52.4%.