Icecream — Pre-IL + Travel Signals

What this is. v1 signal panel testing several edges Dave flagged:

Velo Δ: starter's last 3 starts' fastball avg MPH minus season avg. A drop of 1.5+ MPH is the classic pre-IL flag — a hurt starter often pitches 1-2 more starts before the team officially places him on the IL.
BB Δ: starter's last 3 starts' walk-rate (BB + HBP per PA) minus season rate. Sudden command loss = grip change = arm pain.
Rest: days since the SP's last appearance. ≤3d = short rest, ≥14d = IL return.
BP yday: opposing/own bullpen IP yesterday. Heavy yesterday = bullpen blown up → longer leash on starter today, weaker relief late.
Series: game # of the current series vs this opponent. Game 1 vs game 4 different stories.
Travel: miles flown since the team's prior game (great-circle from prior venue to today's venue, computed in-house from dim_venue + game_results_locked).
TZ: time-zone shift (hours). Negative = westbound. Eastbound red-eyes hurt more.
Rest hrs: estimated wall-clock hours since the team's prior game ENDED (= prior first pitch + 3h). ≤16h with 1000+ miles = redeye flag.
Charter: known charter operator (e.g. Delta, United). Per-game tail-number lookup via ADS-B Exchange is v3 of this work.

v2 (this update): built our own travel computation (Max's team_travel_locked stale since 2026-05-06).
Research-only. Not betting advice.

Color: red = strong pre-IL flag yellow = mild warning (default = noise / no signal) gray = stale or unavailable

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First Pitch	Team	SP	Rest	Velo Δ	BB Δ	BP yday	Series	Travel	TZ	Rest hrs	Charter

Thresholds (v1): Velo Δ red ≤ -1.5 MPH, yellow ≤ -0.75; BB-rate Δ red ≥ +0.05, yellow ≥ +0.025; Rest red ≤ 3, gray ≥ 14; BP yday red ≥ 4.0 IP. Source feed: /daily/predictions-<date>.json. Helpers: wf_current_form_windows.asof_pitcher_velo_stats, asof_pitcher_walks_stats, asof_team_bullpen_ip, asof_team_series_position. Refreshes every 5 minutes alongside the daily cron.