Previous day — graded (2026-06-30)

Model LEANS graded against the final scores — record-keeping, NOT bets (no stakes, no prices). Totals leans 7–7 · Winner leans 8–6 · F5 leader leans 7–4–3p. One day means nothing; the record accumulates here daily.

MatchupFinal (away–home)Totals lean (model vs line)Winner leanF5 leader lean
NYM @ TOR3–0 (F5 1–0)UNDER -108 ✓TOR -113 ✗NYM -111 ✓
LAA @ SEA3–8 (F5 0–0)UNDER -110 ✗SEA -138 ✓tie — push
PIT @ PHI0–8 (F5 0–2)OVER -118 ✗PHI -123 ✓PHI -151 ✓
DET @ NYY9–3 (F5 6–1)OVER -103 ✓NYY -119 ✗NYY -102 ✗
CIN @ MIL2–7 (F5 1–6)OVER -100 ✓MIL -136 ✓MIL -126 ✓
TB @ KC10–4 (F5 8–3)UNDER -121 ✗TB -133 ✓KC -110 ✗
MIN @ HOU4–6 (F5 4–6)OVER -106 ✓MIN -150 ✗MIN -136 ✗
MIA @ COL14–3 (F5 5–1)UNDER -102 ✗MIA -164 ✓MIA -343 ✓
TEX @ CLE4–2 (F5 2–2)UNDER -109 ✓CLE -108 ✗tie — push
SD @ CHC7–9 (F5 3–8)UNDER -155 ✗CHC -170 ✓CHC -140 ✓
WSH @ BOS8–1 (F5 1–1)UNDER -116 ✓WSH -106 ✓tie — push
CWS @ BAL9–3 (F5 9–3)UNDER -122 ✗BAL -101 ✗BAL -112 ✗
STL @ ATL5–3 (F5 4–1)UNDER -123 ✓ATL -118 ✗STL -100 ✓
SF @ ARI2–8 (F5 0–6)UNDER -112 ✗ARI -110 ✓ARI -123 ✓

Running tally · model-line paper bets (EV≥7% vs opening), by day · cumulative +12.65u · paper / no bets

datepicksWLpushpendrunning
2026-06-296240—82–87
2026-06-2810640—80–83
2026-06-2712651—74–79
2026-06-2611371—68–74
2026-06-2510820—65–67
2026-06-244130—57–65
2026-06-2314680—56–62
2026-06-225131—50–54
2026-06-2011920—49–51
2026-06-1911281—40–49
2026-06-183210—38–41
2026-06-1711290—36–40
2026-06-1612750—34–31
2026-06-157331—27–26
2026-06-1413580—24–23
2026-06-139351—19–15
2026-06-1210730—16–10
2026-06-116231—9–7
2026-06-1012741—7–4

Model line — calibrated, honest, no picks

Slate 2026-07-01 · generated 20260701T223122ZZ · research artifact — nothing here beats the market; honesty is the product. No bets. Each card shows market price / our fair (accented), team by team. First-5 win probabilities are P(lead after 5, ties excluded); league tie rate ≈ 15.7%.

NYM @ TOR
confirmed lineupSP RHP / RHP
First 5Full game
NYM ml-108 / -128 (56.1%)-106 / +111 (47.4%)
TOR ml+108 / +128 (43.9%)+106 / -111 (52.6%)
Totals4.5 / 3.76
Over +110 (47.7%)
8.5 / 7.79
Over +121 (45.3%)
PIT @ PHI
confirmed lineupSP RHP / RHP
First 5Full game
PIT ml+113 / +128 (43.9%)+126 / +137 (42.3%)
PHI ml-113 / -128 (56.1%)-126 / -137 (57.7%)
Totals4.0 / 4.33
Over -104 (50.9%)
8.0 / 9.27
Over -110 (52.4%)
DET @ NYY
confirmed lineupSP ?HP / RHP
First 5Full game
DET ml+124 / +121 (45.2%)+131 / +119 (45.8%)
NYY ml-124 / -121 (54.8%)-131 / -119 (54.2%)
Totals5.5 / 5.05
Over +106 (48.5%)
10.0 / 9.75
Over +113 (47.0%)
CIN @ MIL
confirmed lineupSP LHP / LHP
First 5Full game
CIN ml+137 / +114 (46.7%)+144 / +144 (41.0%)
MIL ml-137 / -114 (53.3%)-144 / -144 (59.0%)
Totals4.5 / 4.06
Over +106 (48.6%)
8.5 / 8.22
Over +113 (46.9%)
TB @ KC
confirmed lineupSP LHP / RHP
First 5Full game
TB ml-123 / -133 (57.0%)-128 / -131 (56.8%)
KC ml+123 / +133 (43.0%)+128 / +131 (43.2%)
Totals5.5 / 4.85
Over +109 (47.9%)
10.0 / 9.54
Over +116 (46.2%)
MIN @ HOU
confirmed lineupSP RHP / RHP
First 5Full game
MIN ml+111 / -111 (52.7%)+115 / -127 (55.9%)
HOU ml-111 / +111 (47.3%)-115 / +127 (44.1%)
Totals4.5 / 5.28
Over -109 (52.3%)
8.5 / 10.08
Over -115 (53.5%)
MIA @ COL
confirmed lineupSP RHP / LHP
First 5Full game
MIA ml-142 / -151 (60.1%)-145 / -184 (64.8%)
COL ml+142 / +151 (39.9%)+145 / +184 (35.2%)
Totals5.5 / 6.25
Over -109 (52.2%)
11.0 / 13.55
Over -132 (56.9%)
TEX @ CLE
confirmed lineupSP LHP / LHP
First 5Full game
TEX ml-102 / +109 (47.9%)+104 / +117 (46.1%)
CLE ml+102 / -109 (52.1%)-104 / -117 (53.9%)
Totals4.5 / 4.11
Over +105 (48.7%)
8.5 / 8.16
Over +114 (46.7%)
SD @ CHC
confirmed lineupSP RHP / RHP
First 5Full game
SD ml+118 / +122 (45.1%)+120 / +131 (43.4%)
CHC ml-118 / -122 (54.9%)-120 / -131 (56.6%)
Totals7.0 / 5.07
Over +127 (44.1%)
12.0 / 9.92
Over +147 (40.5%)
WSH @ BOS
confirmed lineupSP RHP / LHP
First 5Full game
WSH ml+128 / +156 (39.1%)+136 / +129 (43.7%)
BOS ml-128 / -156 (60.9%)-136 / -129 (56.3%)
Totals5.0 / 4.49
Over +107 (48.4%)
10.0 / 8.73
Over +131 (43.4%)
CWS @ BAL
confirmed lineupSP LHP / RHP
First 5Full game
CWS ml+124 / -105 (51.2%)+125 / -124 (55.3%)
BAL ml-124 / +105 (48.8%)-125 / +124 (44.7%)
Totals5.5 / 5.46
Over +101 (49.8%)
10.5 / 10.13
Over +115 (46.5%)
STL @ ATL
confirmed lineupSP RHP / RHP
First 5Full game
STL ml+110 / +121 (45.2%)+122 / +122 (45.1%)
ATL ml-110 / -121 (54.8%)-122 / -122 (54.9%)
Totals5.0 / 4.53
Over +106 (48.5%)
9.0 / 8.11
Over +124 (44.7%)
SF @ ARI
mixed lineupSP RHP / RHP
First 5Full game
SF ml+105 / +145 (40.9%)+108 / +128 (43.8%)
ARI ml-105 / -145 (59.1%)-108 / -128 (56.2%)
Totals5.0 / 4.32
Over +109 (47.8%)
9.5 / 8.62
Over +123 (44.8%)

Components: anchors N0L=50 / N0H=50 (hand) / N0T=75 (team); probability fits {"fg": {"totals": {"s": 7.0, "c": 0.6, "n": 6521}, "h2h": {"s": 2.75, "c": -0.3, "n": 8193}}, "f5": {"totals": {"s": 8.25, "c": 0.55, "n": 6567}, "h2h": {"s": 2.0, "c": -0.05, "n": 6951}}} — walk-forward, strictly prior data; matrices pinned to the audited builds; every component individually pre-registered and PASSED before adoption.

Model line — tomorrow

The calibrated model line is a tonight-only bet-of-record artifact — generated each evening (~6:30pm ET) once lineups lock, so there is no “tomorrow” line yet. For tomorrow’s forward preview see the Daily slate or the Tomorrow tab on the bake-off pages. No bets.