Icecream — Forward Sim · RotoWire lineups
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Fair (no-vig) American odds from a per-PA Monte-Carlo of each game on its
RotoWire lineup, with our late-inning bullpen modeled (FG). Each bet shows
our sim fair line vs the opening market and the closing market
(the latest line captured up to 5 min before first pitch — never a live in-game
line; Pinnacle-first; shows “not captured” when no pre-game line exists).
The market line is a reference only. Research only — NO BETS.
Totals run ~1 run rich on the mean (model mean > median; we show both).
Today + tomorrow. Games without a posted RotoWire lineup get a
PROJECTED lineup — each team's most recent batting order plus the live
probable starters — so every scheduled game sims (a game still shows
“awaiting lineup” only when a probable starter isn't named yet).
Auto-reloads every 90s.
Perceived-edge flags (the “7%+ EDGE” badges) are a RESEARCH signal — NOT a pick, NOT betting advice, NO BETS.
The per-PA sim has no validated betting edge (2026 walk-forward: corr +0.03 vs
market +0.24, RMSE worse than the league mean), and after calibration it still
over-tilts in low-total / pitcher-park games — so the flags are dominated by that
residual over-bias (they lean OVER for the wrong reason). A flag is a paper EV
computation only; nothing is staked or recorded anywhere.
Today
Tomorrow