The F5-total models retrain every day on every game that has gone final (they learn forward). This is their live, accumulating record: each model’s daily prediction logged and then graded against the real first-5 score. The honest measure here is accuracy (how close to the actual total) — gradeable on every game — not “beating the line,” because F5 lines are thin and ~99% static. A vs-line win/loss is shown only as a bonus where a real F5 line existed. Question this answers over time: does learning daily make them more accurate — or sharper than the market?
| model | games | RMSE | MAE | vs line (bonus) | hit% | 95% low-CI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Line-aware (sees line) | 217 | 3.599 | 2.839 | 90–121 | 42.7% | 37.2% |
| Lasso | 232 | 3.651 | 2.777 | 88–94 | 48.4% | 42.3% |
| CatBoost (per-team) | 232 | 3.664 | 2.844 | 83–99 | 45.6% | 39.6% |
| 5-model blend | 232 | 3.673 | 2.838 | 88–94 | 48.4% | 42.3% |
| Consensus (median) | 232 | 3.683 | 2.853 | 85–97 | 46.7% | 40.7% |
| CatBoost (game-level) | 232 | 3.700 | 2.850 | 85–97 | 46.7% | 40.7% |
| LightGBM (game-level) | 232 | 3.752 | 2.914 | 84–98 | 46.2% | 40.2% |
| LightGBM | 232 | 3.763 | 2.913 | 86–96 | 47.3% | 41.3% |
| XGB+LGBM trees | 232 | 3.782 | 2.912 | 87–95 | 47.8% | 41.8% |
| XGBoost | 232 | 3.820 | 2.923 | 85–97 | 46.7% | 40.7% |
RMSE/MAE in runs. The market’s own implied number lands ~3.0 RMSE on F5 totals — matching that means we’re as sharp as the line; beating it forward is the bar.
| date | picks | W | L | push | pend | running |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-01 | 12 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 85–97 |
| 2026-06-30 | 11 | 5 | 5 | 1 | — | 80–96 |
| 2026-06-29 | 12 | 8 | 4 | 0 | — | 75–91 |
| 2026-06-28 | 10 | 2 | 7 | 1 | — | 67–87 |
| 2026-06-27 | 11 | 3 | 7 | 1 | — | 65–80 |
| 2026-06-26 | 12 | 6 | 5 | 1 | — | 62–73 |
| 2026-06-25 | 9 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 56–68 |
| 2026-06-24 | 14 | 6 | 8 | 0 | — | 51–65 |
| 2026-06-23 | 11 | 4 | 7 | 0 | — | 45–57 |
| 2026-06-22 | 11 | 3 | 8 | 0 | — | 41–50 |
| 2026-06-21 | 10 | 3 | 7 | 0 | — | 38–42 |
| 2026-06-20 | 13 | 6 | 7 | 0 | — | 35–35 |
| 2026-06-19 | 14 | 7 | 7 | 0 | — | 29–28 |
| 2026-06-18 | 9 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 22–21 |
| 2026-06-17 | 15 | 9 | 5 | 1 | — | 20–15 |
| 2026-06-16 | 14 | 6 | 8 | 0 | — | 11–10 |
| 2026-06-15 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | — | 5–2 |
| matchup | F5 line | our F5 total | lean | result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago White Sox @ Baltimore Orioles | 5.5 | 5.27 | Under | W (5.0) |
| Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers | 4.5 | 5.58 | Over | · |
| Detroit Tigers @ New York Yankees | 5.0 | 5.06 | Over | X (1.0) |
| Miami Marlins @ Colorado Rockies | 5.5 | 7.63 | Over | · |
| Minnesota Twins @ Houston Astros | 4.5 | 5.09 | Over | · |
| New York Mets @ Toronto Blue Jays | 4.5 | 4.79 | Over | W (5.0) |
| Pittsburgh Pirates @ Philadelphia Phillies | 4.0 | 4.61 | Over | · |
| San Diego Padres @ Chicago Cubs | — | 4.94 | — | — (15.0) |
| San Francisco Giants @ Arizona Diamondbacks | 5.0 | 5.17 | Over | · |
| St. Louis Cardinals @ Atlanta Braves | 5.0 | 4.94 | Under | W (3.0) |
| Tampa Bay Rays @ Kansas City Royals | 5.5 | 5.07 | Under | · |
| Texas Rangers @ Cleveland Guardians | 4.5 | 5.85 | Over | W (6.0) |
| Washington Nationals @ Boston Red Sox | 5.0 | 5.46 | Over | W (7.0) |
| matchup | F5 line | our F5 total | lean |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago White Sox @ Cleveland Guardians | 5.0 | 5.48 | Over |
| Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers | 4.0 | 4.04 | Over |
| Los Angeles Angels @ Seattle Mariners | 4.0 | 5.01 | Over |
| Pittsburgh Pirates @ Philadelphia Phillies | 5.5 | 5.43 | Under |
| San Diego Padres @ Los Angeles Dodgers | 5.0 | 5.49 | Over |
| date | matchup | F5 line | our F5 | actual | miss | vs line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-01 | St. Louis Cardinals @ Atlanta Braves | 5.0 | 4.94 | 3.0 | 1.94 | W |
| 2026-07-01 | Chicago White Sox @ Baltimore Orioles | 5.5 | 5.27 | 5.0 | 0.27 | W |
| 2026-07-01 | Washington Nationals @ Boston Red Sox | 5.0 | 5.46 | 7.0 | 1.54 | W |
| 2026-07-01 | San Diego Padres @ Chicago Cubs | — | 4.94 | 15.0 | 10.06 | — |
| 2026-07-01 | Texas Rangers @ Cleveland Guardians | 4.5 | 5.85 | 6.0 | 0.15 | W |
| 2026-07-01 | Detroit Tigers @ New York Yankees | 5.0 | 5.06 | 1.0 | 4.06 | X |
| 2026-07-01 | New York Mets @ Toronto Blue Jays | 4.5 | 4.79 | 5.0 | 0.21 | W |
| 2026-06-30 | San Francisco Giants @ Arizona Diamondbacks | — | 4.99 | 6.0 | 1.01 | — |
| 2026-06-30 | St. Louis Cardinals @ Atlanta Braves | 5.5 | 5.44 | 5.0 | 0.44 | W |
| 2026-06-30 | Chicago White Sox @ Baltimore Orioles | 6.0 | 5.14 | 12.0 | 6.86 | X |
| 2026-06-30 | Washington Nationals @ Boston Red Sox | 5.0 | 6.02 | 2.0 | 4.02 | X |
| 2026-06-30 | San Diego Padres @ Chicago Cubs | — | 4.53 | 11.0 | 6.47 | — |
| 2026-06-30 | Texas Rangers @ Cleveland Guardians | 4.0 | 4.47 | 4.0 | 0.47 | push |
| 2026-06-30 | Miami Marlins @ Colorado Rockies | — | 7.62 | 6.0 | 1.62 | — |
| 2026-06-30 | Minnesota Twins @ Houston Astros | 4.5 | 4.83 | 10.0 | 5.17 | W |
| 2026-06-30 | Tampa Bay Rays @ Kansas City Royals | 5.5 | 5.82 | 11.0 | 5.18 | W |
| 2026-06-30 | Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers | 5.0 | 5.31 | 7.0 | 1.69 | W |
| 2026-06-30 | Detroit Tigers @ New York Yankees | 3.5 | 3.94 | 7.0 | 3.06 | W |
| 2026-06-30 | Pittsburgh Pirates @ Philadelphia Phillies | 4.5 | 5.14 | 2.0 | 3.14 | X |
| 2026-06-30 | Los Angeles Angels @ Seattle Mariners | 4.0 | 4.17 | 0.0 | 4.17 | X |
| 2026-06-30 | New York Mets @ Toronto Blue Jays | 4.5 | 4.97 | 1.0 | 3.97 | X |
| 2026-06-29 | San Francisco Giants @ Arizona Diamondbacks | 4.5 | 5.03 | 5.0 | 0.03 | W |
| 2026-06-29 | Chicago White Sox @ Baltimore Orioles | 5.0 | 5.03 | 4.0 | 1.03 | X |
| 2026-06-29 | Washington Nationals @ Boston Red Sox | 4.5 | 6.52 | 7.0 | 0.48 | W |
| 2026-06-29 | San Diego Padres @ Chicago Cubs | 6.0 | 4.88 | 4.0 | 0.88 | W |
| 2026-06-29 | Texas Rangers @ Cleveland Guardians | 4.5 | 5.04 | 3.0 | 2.04 | X |
| 2026-06-29 | Miami Marlins @ Colorado Rockies | 6.5 | 6.94 | 11.0 | 4.06 | W |
| 2026-06-29 | Minnesota Twins @ Houston Astros | 5.0 | 4.58 | 3.0 | 1.58 | W |
| 2026-06-29 | Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers | 5.0 | 5.66 | 3.0 | 2.66 | X |
| 2026-06-29 | Detroit Tigers @ New York Yankees | 4.0 | 5.06 | 7.0 | 1.94 | W |
| 2026-06-29 | Pittsburgh Pirates @ Philadelphia Phillies | 4.5 | 5.0 | 13.0 | 8.0 | W |
| 2026-06-29 | Los Angeles Angels @ Seattle Mariners | 4.5 | 4.77 | 5.0 | 0.23 | W |
| 2026-06-29 | New York Mets @ Toronto Blue Jays | 4.5 | 4.56 | 2.0 | 2.56 | X |
| 2026-06-28 | Washington Nationals @ Baltimore Orioles | 5.0 | 5.35 | 7.0 | 1.65 | W |
| 2026-06-28 | New York Yankees @ Boston Red Sox | 4.0 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | X |
| 2026-06-28 | Kansas City Royals @ Chicago White Sox | 5.0 | 4.95 | 9.0 | 4.05 | X |
| 2026-06-28 | Seattle Mariners @ Cleveland Guardians | 4.0 | 5.17 | 4.0 | 1.17 | push |
| 2026-06-28 | Houston Astros @ Detroit Tigers | 4.5 | 4.52 | 3.0 | 1.52 | X |
| 2026-06-28 | Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers | — | 4.81 | 1.0 | 3.81 | — |
| 2026-06-28 | Colorado Rockies @ Minnesota Twins | — | 6.17 | 3.0 | 3.17 | — |
Updated 2026-07-01 10:30 PM ET · models retrain daily · append-only ledger · NO BETS.